Speaker: Yu QIN (National University of Singapore)

Time: 16:00 - 17:00 p.m., Apr 18, 2025, GMT+8

Venue: Rm 131, Chengze Yuan, PKU

Abstract: 

The surging frequency of extreme weather events demands stronger climate resilience in public infrastructure. In this project, we examine whether an early warning system of extreme weather could increase the climate resilience in transport networks. Leveraging on a station-by-hour subway ridership dataset in Beijing for two years and merge the information with 23 rainstorm warning events, we estimate the impact of rainstorm warnings on subway ridership by exploiting district-level advisory variations to form treatment and control stations near administrative boundaries. We have three main findings so far: 1) rainstorm increases subway ridership by 3.9% on average; 2) rainstorm warnings lead to a 3.5% decline in subway ridership, and a 14.4% decline in ridership if preceding weather aligns with the warning; 3) intertemporal shift of trips is unlikely to explain the result; instead, modal shift from subway to road transport is likely to be a mechanism explaining the impact of rainstorm warnings.

Source: National School of Development, PKU